tv Bulls and Bears FOX Business December 30, 2012 1:00am-1:30am EST
meltdown. >> dave: join us on the after the show show. >> they're still scrambling and we're all still waiting. wh but would no deal be better for the fiscal economy than a shed deal. brenda buttner, bulls and bears. gary b smith, tobin smith. jonas max ferris. a no deal better than a bad deal. >> it would create more uncertainty or one of the deals they're talking about, which is raising taxes and now, and they trust us, we'll get to the spending cuts later , let's not worry about that right now. the last thing we want to see is a we-need congress and a weak-willed president patting themselves on the back because they have some watered down deal. i think they need to feel some
ain, i think they need to see he the implication in the markets, in the ecomy, so, yes, i think no deal right now is better than a bad deal. >> okay, gary b, jim mentioned the market, let me play wall street on tv. basically i'm sick of this. 'm going to keep heading south because the uncertainty, the anxiety is killing me. if we had any kind of deal, at least we might see stocks move up a bit. that wld be good for our 401(k)'s, wouldn't it? >> that's exactly my perspective, brenda. this was a really rough week on the market and it's all related to, n the-- not the fiscal cliff, it's the psychology of the fisl cliff, and the sad truth is whether they do a deal now or they thoughtfully do a deal six months from now, really, nothing will be accomplished. the fact is, public debt is consuming our economy. it's about 73%, regardles o what deal gets done. it will be about 73, 74% ten years from now. we've done nothing and nothing
will be done to address social security, which is now officially running adeficit, medicare, medicaid costs are growing ast nomically. at least do a dumb deal now and get people over the fiscal cliff and kick the can down the road, that's going to happen anyway. >> steve, no deal, bad deal? i kind of feel like i'm playing poker. what do you think? >> i can't believe it, but i agree with jim. the most deficit reduction is gog toome from no deal. and that's what we need. that's what this economy needs, the biggest threat to economic growth, if the deficit and the debt, 4 trillion, everybody talks about it as some sort of grand bargain. it's barely a start. this isn't a fiscal cliff, it's a fisca bunny hill, let's slide down it. >> if we slide down, jonas, in the first week, people are going to open up the paycheck and see less money there.
i don't think that people understandhat at this point. >> people get used to tax cs, that's the problem. shoort-term expiring tax cuts, including the payroll tax cut. you know, it's not the best way to solve a problem, but th cliff is the result of not coming up with deals and they're not going to come up with battery deal, if it's negotiated it's nothe ideal way to solve it outfter deficit. we'd like t gradually raise taxes and cut spending, but this is the best we're going to get. any of the deals they would agree on, probably leave us to the other guest's pot, close to a trillion dollars anyway, and it's the closest shot leaves us with aeficit and closing this gap we can't get out of. and since they lowered taxes they raise spending and two things have to convening and one unfortunate way to do it. >> aren't we in the end, toby, go to get a bad deal? >> from the market sndpoint e want to this riding in the last moment on white horses
kumbayah, i believe the last hour the last day. >> the markets have been down had a bad week, selloff. >> in the futures market on friday, just after the guys came outen said maybe we have a deal, shot up a hundred oints, but the market is a short-term player. the short-term there's a vote counter, it's voting short-term. in the long-term, gary b is absolutely right and other guys are right, we'll getver this. don't worry about your 401(k) on january 3rd if it's down because don't have a deal. worry about your 401(k) two years down the road if not only we get nothing, but now we go into a place where, i mean, our country is more divided according to a lot of reports than we were the civil war in terms of where we are. if we need to get closer on that long-term deficit, people will a fiery leap and then see yourtock market race and roar. >> i don't know. jim, whado you think? the market is pretty short-term and toby says take
a longer term perspective. is that what we need? >> i think that the market gyrations are not what we need to really worry about. we really need to address what's going on with our debt and keep in mind the federal reserve board is printing about a trillion dollars a year right now. why are they doing that? so happens we're running a trillion dollar deficit. we have got to get control about it. they ought to forget about the stock market now and address the deficitsnd simplify the tax codso we can get the economy growing, that would create more renues. they're not going to do it. i'm just wishing and dreaming. >> gar b, you can wish, i know y've been quite sktical an skepticism seems the proper attite given what history has shown us what washington can do. >> exactlybrenda. one of the reasons that jim alluded to, he said, look, we n't need to pay attention to the market. well, we need to pay attention to the psychology though. the market is one manifestcation of that, but it works in other things like retail spending over the holidays.
people just fear this fiscal cliff thing and they get scared and they tighten in and they don't spend as much, i think you're going to see that when the final retail resul come out from this past holiday season. that's why i want something resolved. even if there's a big headline in the washington post, it's fiscal cliff resolved and nothing got done, people would feel better about thin. >> toby, speak to that point. youon'think so, huh? >> was that the pablem strategy, gary? >> that's what we're going to get anyway. >> six months ago we passed on the horrible sequestration things so congress can have time and solve this, where did it get us? nowhere. and there's a reason people don't trust this congress, they haven't earned one eye o iota. >> and got their vacations. let's talk the economy. the economy is right on that
precipice. if we were to just take a shot into, you know, the back side here, you know, our consumer confidence has been dropping week by week and we'll get right back into slow growth and tn we'll freak o and do something more stupid. you were smirking, jonas. >> to get to your original question of the stock market, i think if they did nothing, but kick t can an entire year with all of these things and pushed the whole thing the next holiday season and holiday sales like this year, i think the market would go up, wall street is happyith pushing the problem down the road even though it shoulbe addressed sooner than that. i don't think it's good for the stock mark in the short run to solve these deficit problems. maybe we can keep rates 0 low and basically get money or nothing basically. >> steve? >> this is absolutely right. everybody thinks that 4 trillion dollars is going to wreck the economy somehow. these cuts are very small in terms of the overall size of the economy. lus, people lac confidence
in ever having any sound fiscal policy in washington. the stock market will do bes by us putting in place some much more conservative fiscal policies. >> okay. >> wait a minute, steve, is that you? is that you? (laughter) >> we can find common ground. we can find common ground. >> there's the kumbayah, okay, thanks, guys. well, forget all the talk in d.c. permanent tax hikes will definitely hit on tuesday no matter what. the cavuto gang getting ready to tell you what th government is ntelling you. that's at the bottom of the hour, first, angry passengers strandedn airports cursing the weather. but should they be cursingngngng
to be blamed, toby says we should blame government regulations. >> here is a fact when it's a $27,000 fine if you're on the tarmac for more than three he hours in a minute which i was about two and a half years ago before they did this, what happens is, they get fined $27 grand per passenger and now th're doing, what they call in the industry the economic kill and look at the numbers and amount of passengers on the flight and for the idea of maybe saving 100 or 200 people a year, who are stuck on the tore ma tarmac and trust me, it's no fun. 2 million people have flights canceled next year because of the quick kill. and as long as we have a $27,000 fine they can take the profit from the airline in a month in one plane flht so they're not doing this. brenda: let's kick this to the extreme. the fine i $27,000 p passenger, if you take that to the extreme, it might illustrate what this is about. >> let's pretend it's a 100
million dollar flight obviously airline is not going to fl a plane if there's a chance it's going to be on the tarmac more than three hours. when you do that, you see at the margin there's flights that get caught. wouldn't have been caught back when they could leave tobin on the tarmac with no water and-- >> forget that, no cocktail. >> the result you can have more likelihood of your flight getting canceled. on the flipid not getting stuck on the tarmac for six hours, someeople think it's a good thing. and if your flight is canceled you're not going to get home and you're mamad. >> brenda: gary. >> and versus hundreds of thousands, how can you have a trade-off? >> guys, we were looking at a graphic, gary b, swed the year before the regulations how many canceled flights and the year after, how many cancelled flights and there's a big difference there. >> toby is kind of right. whenever theovernment int
intercedes and tries to fix the market. back in 1978 they deregulated the airline industries, you had airlines come and go and some failed and some rightly so, but you look at the-- for example, ups. if you go in and you choose two day delivery at ups and they screw up a coupl of times, guess what, you start using fed ex and maybe even the postal service for crying out loud. with airlines, people, yeah, you might get stuck on the tarmac for eight hours and people are blogging and twittering like crazy and whatever airline did that mor than a few times, toby wouldn't fly delta, fly american or take the train or something. let the market work, the vernment can't manage . >> brenda: what do you think, does the invisible hand of the marketork or does the government need to reach in as well. >> and what i think is that gary bnd tobin can go ahead and die a slow death sitting onhe tarmac, i'm for the
fastdeath, and not hing the rlines leave people parked on the tarmac analalso, look, we have two huge storms, one behind the other, covering two-thirds of the country and the government gets blamed by these guys for it. come on, guys, it's bad weather. >> brenda: oh, well, we can blame the government, there's plenty to blame around there. >> blame them for the debt. >> brenda: and it's kind of hard to pick a side here, right? you sit on the tarmac or you get your flight canceled or you sit in theterminal? >> well, brenda, i'm against all government regulations and i'm also against the cattle call customer servi that we always get from the airlines. so, picking a side here is like edie amine and paul potts, at the end of the day, i really think that government needs to stay out of this, and customers can vote with their feet or wings, hot air balloon, take a train, whatever they want to or switch airlines. i don't think it's really worth it for the government to geinvolved here and as we
found out, with banking regulations, the fees will go up. the fees will always go up the more that the government ts involved in any industry. so, whether it's baggage fees or some other kinds of fees that we're seeing, we're going to see fee go up because the government intrusion here. >> brenda: toby you probably spent more time on the tarmac or in an airport than anybody else, you have the final word. >> we recently had a fligh come back, on the tarmac for two and a half hours and it came back and those people off loaded, and m group of people got onhe same flightnd took off in a half hour. that's the insanity that we're in right now because of these laws and it's the unintended consequences as gary says, taking a few incidents a now taking 2 million people to deal with a little problem. >> brenda: thanks, guys, that's got to be the last word. so, dock workers and shippers forging a temporary deal to avoid shutting down major ports and our economomomomom
>> a last minute dea averts a crippling strike from maine to texas, but the temporary agreement will only last about a month and jim, you say this could be the costliest union threat yet? how so? >> we've already seen retailers like home depot, lowe's and target affect their business. we're in an age of just-in-time delivery. and when youisrupt that, you disrupt things when times are tough. bear in mind, also, there are 25 million people out of work.
52 million on food stamps and the unions are choosing now to flex their muscles. i do't know wh is running pr for these people, it might be "monty python," it's bad timing and bad pr. >> brenda: and these people say they need a better, livable wage. yeah, what's wrong with workers getting a raise and wages going up overall in the economy? that's going to give people more confidence. >> brenda: right. >> it's a good, a little wage inflation would be good for this economy. brenda: jonas, are we going to see inflation after different sort? are we going to see inflation to the produs and to the owners too? >> by t vchlimport-- there will be crease ins prices. in this case, the union screwed up in the sense they should have done this during the holiday shipping season and kind of missed that strike opportunity like they had a few years ago and now the shipping volumes are lower so we can kind of handle it, tax increases are going to happen
and it will drop off. unions have no power in in and it will fizzle out because of that. >> brenda: what do you think, gary b, a bigger threat because that have? >> no, i think it's a minimal threat. i think it's the right tactic, it's the wrong decade for it. look, you're target, now you know, in 30 days, our supply could be disrupted, what are you going to do if you're the target guy head of inventory? you're going to say maybe we'd better order a little bit more right now so we have supplies. they're not going to let their shelves go empty or they're ing to say look, we won't use cargo ships, we'll bring it over by air freight. for cryg out loud they're going to adapt. the unions missed the b boat on this one, so to speak. >> brenda: but there's a price to that contingcy plan, last word? >> yeah, there is. for the president to add anher 80 days on to this, but let's miss the pot, striking because automation is taking their jobs. they should talk to the gas lamp lighting union. >> brenda: that's got to be
the last word. okay, tnk you guys. and thanks to steve and jim for joining us today. we appreciate it. up next, the gang is on the hot seat their best and yes, worst calls in 2012 and see how you can still profit from the good, bad and ugly. put down the noise makers and pick up moneymakers, it's a new years party, bulls and bears style. the one stock that could doubleour money in 2013. [beep] [indistinct chatter]
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>> okay fair and balanced, that's the the way we make money here, our gang's best and worst calls in 2012 and how you can still profit from them. right noin the scoreboard. we do the bad and good here on bulls and bears and saving the best for last and starting with the best of the worst or something like that. all rit, toby, you're up first in march y said get healthy with molina health care, but making investors sick with a 20% drop. will it recover? >> they had a bad quarter, but medicaid and obamacare is it
going to help them. i am a buyer now. >> brenda: jonas zumiez was your pick and 49%, are you still standing by that call? >> 49, you know, last year worst pick sprint went up 140% this year. stick with it it could rebound next year. >> oh, man-up. >> brenda: and worst call in 2012. gary b, in may you said nike would run to new highs instead it tripped and fell and it's down 53% since then. are you still a believer in nike? >> i am, it's rallied lately and made a nice move, the last few weeks. i love it for 2013. >> brenda: oka now to the best calls and toby, you're going to kick things off again. in august, said build up your profits with pulte group since then up 41%, time to buy me or takthe profit and run. >> it's going to be up another 20, 30%, i might sellalf and hold onto the rest. >> brenda: on to number two, jonas, back in march you said pour yourself profits with
constellation brands and 54% gains since then. you still like that? >> i would sl that to cover your losses i zumiez. >> brenda: he did man up. and there for the number one call in 12, gary b, you have the worst and the best in january you said bank of america was ready to bank some serious profits. well, boy, you were right in percentage terms, it's 73% higher, cash out or buy some more. >> no, no, it's going to keep going higher. too big to fail, brenda, the nice thing about this. >> brenda: i never thought i'd hear you say that. and all right, ys, that was thennd this is now, it's time for the best name to own in 2013. gary b, your prediction >> well, i hesitate to go back to the well again, i'll go ba with apple, slaughted recently down 26% if highs, i thin it will me new all time highs. >> brenda: jonas bull or bear. >> not quite as